TÜBİTAK 1001 Project No: 223K630

Project Leader: Ulaş Karakoç, Kadir Has

Project Researchers: –

Project Asistants: Firdevs Bulut (Ege University, Economics, PhD), Duygu Kaya (Koc University, Computational Social Science, MA), Defne Baris (Kadir Has University, Economics, BA)        

For Project Summary:

This research project investigates the impact of climate change on agricultural crop yields in Turkey, focusing on 15 major crops across 81 provinces from 1930-2020. The study employs a three-phase approach: first analyzing historical yield trends at crop and provincial levels to identify patterns and potential plateaus; second, developing econometric models as well as machıne learning models to understand relationships between yields and various agronomic and economic factors (including fertilizers, irrigation, machinery, and labor); and third, creating spatial predictive models that incorporate climate variables to forecast future crop yields at the provincial level. The research aims to produce high-predictive-power models that can inform regional agricultural policies and help vulnerable agricultural systems adapt to climate change, ultimately supporting Turkey’s agricultural sustainability in the face of transforming environmental conditions.